I have written previously about our Manchurian president, whose policies seem to be tailored to drastically alter the trajectory of this country in a negative way, reducing American power and influence around the world and destroying our way of life which made this country great. Now I fear our dear leader has his eye on another prize, the downfall of the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance that has held the peace in Europe, if not globally, for sixty years.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been on record saying, “The breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century.” Now we see Russia , under Putin’s leadership, well on its way to reestablishing lost Soviet control of Russia’s border states. I have no doubt, if left unchecked under Putin’s direction, Russia will move to regain its dominance of Eastern Europe. Vladimir Putin would like nothing more than to destroy the alliance that won the Cold War against the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
If you saw Dinesh D’Souza’s movie “2016: Obama’s America”, you will understand the thesis that Obama looks at the world from a different worldview. He sees America’s European colonialist roots as the problem in today’s society. Remember when he sent the bust of Winston Churchill, who was instrumental in defeating fascism, back to England? Obama does not have a Eurocentric view of the world; in fact, it’s quite the opposite. In Obama’s mind, white Europe is not something to be especially worried about. He’d much rather concentrate on redistributing wealth at home. So what if Putin wants to take a few former Soviet republics? It’s not something to spend political capital over, especially with opinion polls showing American’s fatigue of overseas adventures, the need for American presidential leadership notwithstanding.
So now we hear rumors that the Kremlin is stirring up the same type of political unrest in Estonia, which has a forty percent Russian speaking population. Estonia also has an earned reputation for the rule of law and a free press, something Moscow has little tolerance for. It’s the same old Soviet, or Nazi, playbook. Stir up a little civil war in a neighboring country, and then your military rides in to the rescue when one of the Russian-speaking population members gets shot as the local government tries to regain control. We’ve seen this movie before. Putin would like nothing more than to see Russian submarines again docked at the Paldiski shipyards.
The small little problem is that Estonia is now a full fledged member of NATO. That means that Estonia can invoke Article Five of the Washington Treaty, which says that an attack against Estonia is an attack against all NATO countries. This scenario would require the United States to come to their aid with armed force if required. The question that Vladimir Putin must have already asked himself is, “Will the United States fulfill its obligation under this treaty if Russia looks to ‘protect’ the Russian speaking population of Estonia?” Unfortunately, I think Putin believes the answer to this question is a resounding no.
So now the question becomes, is this the type of flexibility that Obama told Prime Minister Medvedev he would have after the 2012 election? Does Putin already know Obama will not deter him from attempting to annex Ukraine, Estonia, or other Eastern European countries? Obama has already allowed Putin to dictate outcomes against American interests during the Iran negotiations, the Syrian crisis, and elsewhere. Has a tacit agreement been made between Obama and Putin in the Baltics? If you really don’t care about the survival of NATO, what better way than to just let nature take its course and allow Putin to move west to the Near Abroad? One could even call the whole scenario Europe’s own fault for not spending for their own defense. Or one could call it karma for Europe’s history of enslaving its African neighbors for centuries.
Whether this weakness shown by the Obama administration is intentional or not, it doesn’t matter; the consequences will be the same. For if Russia is allowed to penetrate NATO’s outer limits without severe military consequences, the entire premise of Article 5 will be shown to be a paper tiger, not worth the paper it is printed on; and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will be destroyed.
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